Business cycle dating committee definition

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Second, we consider the depth of the decline in economic activity.Recall that our definition includes the phrase, “a significant decline in activity.” Isn’t a recession a period of diminished economic activity?

As another example, the Committee did not declare a recession for 2001 or 2003, even though the data at the time appeared to show a decline in economic activity (though not for two quarters).Note: CEPR Recession shading for quarters follows the trough method used by FRED to compute NBER Recession Inndicators for the United States (see here).It shows a recession from the quarter following the peak through the quarter of the trough (i.e.See The CEPR and NBER Approaches What data does the Committee use?See Data Sources The financial press often states the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP.

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