Cepr business cycle dating committee
For example, in its memorandum explaining the December, 2007 peak (NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee ), the NBER committee mentioned that it considers five series, quarterly real GDP and the “big four ” monthly series, real personal income less transfers, real manufacturing and wholesale-retail trade sales, industrial production, and nonfarm employment. The dating of turning points evidently has shifted from aggregating the turning points of many disaggregated series to using the turning points of a few highly aggregated series.
(These series do not in general receive equal weight.) In contrast, when the NBER research program on dating business cycles commenced, researchers examined turning points in hundreds of series and dated business cycles by detecting clusters of specificcycle turning points, see Arthur Burns and Wesley Mitchell (1946, p. This shift raises a methodological question: should reference cycle turning points be determined by aggregating then dating, or by dating then aggregating?
The H-P Filter produces some different results for individual economies and it is perfectly consistent with the CEPR view of the current cycle.
We are well aware of the potential shortcomings of the H-P filter particularly its sensitivity to end points.
In the United States the identification of the turning points in business cycles has been done by the National Bureau of Economic Research, early pioneers in business cycle research.
Europe has not had the same tradition and it is only with the development of the European Community and the Eurozone that common comparable economic statistics have made the task easier.
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Barbara Rossi is an ICREA professor of Economics at Universitat Pompeu Fabra, a Barcelona GSE Research Professor, a CREI affiliated professor, a CEPR Fellow, a member of the CEPR Business Cycle Dating Committee and a Director of the International Association of Applied Econometrics.
Rossi earned her Ph D from Princeton University in 1995.
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